Baylor University

Economics 4312

Business Cycles and Forecasting

Summer 2005

Dr. Tom Kelly

Office: A.301.2 Hankamer

Phone: 710-4146

Fax: 710-6142

E-Mail: Tom_Kelly@baylor.edu

Home Page: http://hsb.baylor.edu/html/kellyt/home.htm

Purpose of the Course: To introduce you to the concepts, tools, and techniques used by economist for business forecasting.

The Textbook: Bails & Peppers, Business Fluctuations, Forecasting Techniques and Applications, (2^nd edition)

General Requirements: You will be asked to read and work assignments based upon the textbooks, participate in class discussions of course content, and perform written examinations based upon course content. Assignments are due no more than two days after they are assigned. To prepare for each class session, refer to the schedule below. Do not use the content outlines as a substitute for reading the material but rather as a guideline for emphasis.

Computer Requirements: We will use Excel as our primary statistical package, using the MegaStat feature in addition to normal spread sheet calculations.

Course Dates and Topics:

Beginning Dates	Topics	Chapter
May 31	Overview of Forecasting Business Forecasting Assignment 1: Answer questions 2, 4, 5 on page 26.	1
June 2	Macroeconomic Forecasting and Microeconomic Links. Resources for Economists Macroeconomic Forces.ppt Assignment 2: Answer questions 7 and 16 on page 57.	2
June 6	Data Collection and Analysis: Data Basics Assignment 3: Work exercises 7 and 10 and answer question 13 on pages 102-103.	3
June 8	Forecasting and Forecast Evaluation.	4
June 10	Exam I on Chapters 1-4 Review Questions Preparation for exam I
June 13	Simple Linear Regression Assignment 4: Answer questions 2, 7, 9, 13, and work exercise 16 on pages 209-211.	5
June 15	Multiple Regression Models. Assignment 5: Answer questions 16, 19, and work exercise 21 on pages 278-279.	6
June 20	Advanced Topics in Regression Analysis. Assignment 6: Answer questions 3, 5 and work exercise 8 on pages 335-339.	7
June 22	Exam II on Chapters 5-7 Review questions
June 23	Time Series Models. Naive and moving averages	8
June 27	Time Series Models (Continued) Exponential smoothing Assignment 7: Answer questions 2, 3, 4 and work exercise 15 on pages 413-414
June 29	Advanced Time Series Models (Box-Jenkins Methodology) Assignment 8: Answer question 1,2, 10, and 12 and work exercises 16 and 17 on pages 470-480.	9
July 1	Monitoring and Revising Forecasts. Assignment 9: Work exercises 5 and 6 and answer questions 10 and 11 on pages 513-514.	10
July 5	Final Exam on Chapters 8-10 Review Questions

Your grade will be based upon the following:

1. The total of 3 exam grades worth 300 points (100 points each).
2. The 9 assignments will count up to 90 points (10 points each).
3. Lab/class participation 10 points

Hence, the maximum points that may be accumulated amounts to 400 points.

Grades will be based upon a percentage breakdown of this amount as follows: 90% and above = A; 87-89% = B+; 80-86% = B; 77-79% = C+; 70-76% = C; 60-69 % = D; Below 60% = F.