Baylor University

 

Economics 3307

Intermediate Macroeconomic Analysis

 

Summer 2001

Dr. Tom Kelly

Office:  A.301.2 Hankamer

Phone:  710-4146

Fax:  710-1092

E-mail:  Tom_Kelly@baylor.edu

Office Hours: 

M-F:  9:30-11:00Am

 

 

COURSE OBJECTIVES:

 

            This course is a detailed examination of the tendencies of market economies to (i) exhibit upward trends in the volume of production over time and to (ii) fluctuate back and forth between good times and bad times.  Our goals are (i) to describe the historical facts about these long-run trends and short-run fluctuations; (ii) to explore the implications of these trends and fluctuations for the decisions made by individuals, businesses, and governments; and (iii) to examine the theories that attempt to explain why market economies experience growth and why that growth is irregular and unstable.

            If we are successful in this class, at the end of the semester you should be able to:  (i) understand and evaluate media stories about the economy; (ii) analyze a wide range of macroeconomic issues, including those not discussed in class; and (iii) communicate clearly your understanding of macroeconomic facts, concepts, and reasoning techniques.

 

 

TEXTBOOK:

 

            Mankiw, N. Gregory.  (2000).  Macroeconomics, 4th ed.  New York:  Worth. 

 

Any other reading materials will be accessible on the Internet or handed out in class.

 

 


CURRENT EVENTS:

 

            You are strongly encouraged to follow current macroeconomic developments using the source of your choice.  Good options include the Wall Street Journal, the Financial Times (which is especially good for foreign affairs and international trade issues), the Economist magazine, Barron's, Business Week, and "Moneyline" on CNN (6pm and 10pm weeknights).  My home page has quite a few links to electronic news sources.  If you make a reasonable effort to keep up with current events, you will have a much easier time participating in class discussions and anticipating exam questions. 

 

 

GRADE DETERMINATION:

 

            At the end of the term, I will compute a FINAL NUMERICAL AVERAGE based on the following weights assigned to three exams and class projects and presentations:

 

FIRST  EXAM:                                                                        25%

SECOND EXAM:                                                                   25%

FINAL EXAM:                                                                        35%

CLASS  PROJECTS and CLASS PRESENTATION:             15%

 

 

The exam dates will be given a week in advance. 

 

            I will assign course grades on the basis of the distribution of final averages.  A final average over 90 will guarantee a course grade of “A”, a final average over 80 will guarantee a course grade of “B”, etc., but the actual cutoffs might be a bit lower (e.g., 89 for an A).   

 

            In awarding final grades, I normally give "consideration" (i.e., move people up who are close to but below a cut-off point for a higher course grade) for the following:  a good grade on the comprehensive final, good class attendance, good class participation, consistently excellent work on assignments, and improvement over the semester.  All such consideration must be fair to other students and is made at my discretion.

 

            The CLASS PRESENTATION will require you to analyze the economy of a country of your choice.  You will determine present to the class evidence concerning its past, current, and future economic performance and your analysis of risks factors that might influence investment opportunities for U.S. firms in the chosen country.  A 5-8 minute PowerPoint presentation will be made to the class, with hard copy turned into the professor.

 

TWO projects will require you to analyze and evaluate a published story about the economy using the models developed in class.  Project #1 will involve an analysis of long-term issues and will use the models in Chapters 4 and 5 of the textbook, while Project #2 will involve an analysis of short-term issues and will use the model developed in Chapter 9.  Your write-ups for these projects will be about 4-5 pages each.

 

Schedule of Topics

(The associated chapter from the textbook is given prior to the topic.)

 

Part ONE:  INTRODUCTION

 

Chapter 1.  The Science of Macroeconomics

Topics in Chapter 1

 

A.                                               Why Study Macroeconomics 

1.      The role of economic aggregates

2.      The historical performance of the U.S. economy

3.      What is happening in other economies around the world?

 

B.     How Economist Think

1.      The role of theory as model building

a.       Exogenous versus endogenous variables

b.      The ability to ask “if, then” questions

2.      A multitude of models: demand and supply in the goods sector versus the financial sector

3.      The role of flexible prices (market clearing) versus sticky prices

Six Primary Concepts of Macroeconomics

 

Chapter 2.  The Data of Macroeconomics 

            Topics in Chapter 2

 

A.           Income, expenditure and circular flow

B.           Real GDP versus nominal GDP

C.           The components of expenditure

D.           Measuring changes in the cost of living:  CPI

E.            Measuring joblessness:  the unemployment rate

F.     Key web sites on macroeconomic performance: 

1.      Bureau of Economic Analysis http://www.bea.doc.gov/

2.      First Union:  http://firstunion.com/library/econews/

3.      White House:  http://www.whitehouse.gov/fsbr/esbr.html

 

Class Presentations on Chosen Economy

 

Part TWO:  THE ECONOMY IN THE LONG RUN

 

Chapter 3.  National Income:  Where It Comes From and Where It Goes 

            Topics in chapter 3

            Main Points in Chapter 3

A.     What Determines the Total Production of Goods and Services? 

1.      Factors of Production:  Capital, labor, and technology

2.      The production function (with constant returns to scale)

3.      Output with capital and technology fixed

4.      The derived demand for labor and the real wage

5.      The demand for capital and the real rental price of capital

B.     What Determines the Demand for Goods and Services?

1.      Consumption

2.      Investment

3.      Government purchases

4.      Net Exports

C.     What Brings the Supply and Demand for Goods and Services into Equilibrium?

1.      Actual spending equals desired spending

2.      The interest rate is given at equilibrium based on the supply and demand for loanable funds

3.   Total leakages equals total injections

4.   Exogenous forces affecting equilibrium (Government spending and investment decisions)

 

Chapter 4.  Economic Growth I 

      Topics in Chapters 4 & 5

      Main Points in Chapter 4

A.  The Accumulation of Capital

1.      The supply and demand for goods

2.      Growth in the capital stock and the steady state

3.      How savings affects growth

4.      The golden rule level of capital

B.  Population Growth

1.      The steady state with population growth

2.      The effects of population growth

 

Chapter 5.  Economic Growth II

      Main Points in Chapter 5

A.     The efficiency of labor

B.     The steady state with technological progress

C.     Policies to promote growth

D.     Beyond the Solow Model:  endogenous growth theory 

http://www.courses.fas.harvard.edu/~ec1011b/lectures/1999/Lecture_Notes_5.pdf

http://www.stanford.edu/~promer/Econgro.htm

 

Exam 1 on Chapters 3 – 5  Sample questions

 

Class Presentations of Media Stories on Long-run economic impacts

 

Chapter 6.  Unemployment

Topics in chapter 6

      Main Points in Chapter 6

A.     Job loss, job Finding and the natural rate of unemployment

B.     Job search and frictional unemployment

C.     Real-wage rigidity and wait unemployment

D.     Patterns in unemployment

 

Chapter 7.  Money and Inflation

Topics in chapter 7

      Main Points in Chapter 7

A.     What is money?

B.     The quantity theory of money

C.     The velocity of money:  the missing link

D.     Inflation and interest rates

E.      The demand for money and nominal interest rates

F.      The social cost of inflation

G.     Hyperinflation

 

Chapter 8.  The Open Economy

      Main Points in Chapter 8

A.     The international flows of capital and goods

B.     Savings and investment in a small open economy

C.     Exchange rates

D.     Economic policy under fixed and flexible exchange rates

E.      The United States as a large open economy

 

Chapter 9.  Introduction to Economic Fluctuations

Topics in chapter 9

      Main Points in Chapter 9

A.     Time horizons in macroeconomics

B.     Aggregate demand

C.     Aggregate supply

D.     Stabilization policy

 

Exam 2 on Chapters 6-9

 

Chapter 10.  Aggregate Demand I

Topics in chapter 10

      Main Points in Chapter 10

A.     The goods market and the IS curve

B.     The money market and the LM curve

C.     Short-run equilibrium

 

Chapter 11.  Aggregate Demand II

Topics in chapter 11

      Main Points in Chapter 11

A.     Explaining fluctuations with the IS-LM model

B.     IS-LM as a Theory of Aggregate Demand

C.     The Great Depression

 

Chapter 12.  Aggregate Demand in an Open Economy

Topics in chapter 12

 

A.     The Mundell-Fleming Model

B.     The small open economy under floating exchange rates

C.     The small open economy under fixed exchange rates

D.     Interest rate differentials

E.      Should exchange rates be floating or fixed?

F.      The Mundell-Fleming Model with a changing price level

 

Chapter 13.  Aggregate Supply

Topics in chapter 13

      Main Points in Chapter 13

A.     Four models of aggregate supply

1.      The sticky wage model

2.      The worker-misperception model

3.      The imperfect-information model

4.      The sticky price model

B.     Inflation, unemployment, and the Phillips Curve

 

Class Presentations on Media Stories of Short-run Aggregate Impact

 

      Final Exam on Chapters 10-13