Chapter
12 Fiscal Policy
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I.
Theory of Fiscal Policy
Fiscal
policy uses government purchases, transfer payments, taxes, and borrowing to
affect macroeconomic variables such as employment, the price level, and the
level of GDP.
Tools
of fiscal policy:
1.
Automatic Stabilizers – Structural features of government spending and
taxation that smooth fluctuations in disposable income, and hence consumption,
over the business cycle.
-
Federal
Income Tax
2.
Discretionary Fiscal Policy – The deliberate manipulation of government
purchases, taxation, and transfers in order to promote macroeconomic goals such
as full employment, price stability, and economic growth.
-
Changes
in Government Purchases
II.
Discretionary Fiscal Policy
A.
Changes in Government
Purchases
Example:
D Real GDP = DG * (1/1-MPC)
B.
Changes in Net Taxes
Decrease
in net taxes à increases disposable income
à consumption increases à increases real GDP demanded.
Increase
in net taxes à decreases disposable income
à consumption decreases à decreases real GDP demanded.
Example:
Simple
tax multiplier-
The ratio of a change in equilibrium real GDP demanded to the initial change in
autonomous net taxes that brought it about; the numerical value of the simple
tax multiplier is -MPC/1-MPC.
D Real GDP = DNT * (-MPC/1-MPC)
Notes:
1.
Increase
in government spending, increases equilibrium real GDP demanded. (simple
government purchase multiplier >0)
2.
Increase
in net taxes, decreases equilibrium real GDP demanded. (simple tax multiplier
<0)
III.
Including Aggregate Supply
(Discretionary Policy Continued)
Often
natural market forces will take a long time to close a contractionary gap.
A.
Discretionary Fiscal Policy
in Response to a Contractionary Gap
Suppose
that in short-run equilibrium, we have a contractionary gap. Unemployment is
above the natural rate. If the market adjusts naturally, the nominal price of
resources will drop in the long run; short-run aggregate supply would shift out
to achieve equilibrium at potential output.
Often,
however, wages and prices are slow to adjust. Government may introduce fiscal
policy to move the economy more quickly back to potential output. They might
change net taxes or government spending or both.
Example:
B.
Discretionary Fiscal Policy
in Response to an Expansionary Gap
If
short-run equilibrium price level exceeds the level on which long-term
contracts were based, output exceeds potential GDP. In the long run, we expect the short-run aggregate supply curve
to shift back, returning the economy to potential output and increasing the
price level.
Use
of discretionary fiscal policy can avoid inflation.
Example:
Precisely
calculated fiscal policies are hard to achieve because the government must
know:
1.
The
spending multiplier
2.
Whether
aggregate demand can be shifted the correct amount
3.
What
the potential output level is
4.
How
to coordinate fiscal efforts among government agencies
5.
The
shape of aggregate supply curve in the short run
C.
The Multiplier and the Time
Horizon
The
steeper the short-run aggregate supply curve, the less impact a given shift in
the aggregate demand curve has on output and the more impact it has on the
price level, so the smaller the spending multiplier.
If
the economy is already producing its potential output, the spending multiplier
is zero in the long run.
IV.
Problems with Discretionary
Fiscal Policy
A.
Fiscal Policy and the
Natural Rate of Unemployment
To
use discretionary fiscal policy, public officials must correctly estimate the
natural rate.
Example:
B.
Lags in Fiscal Policy
The
time required to approve and implement fiscal policy may make it less effective
as a tool for stabilization. Imposed at the wrong time, measures may cause more
harm than good.
C.
Discretionary Policy and
Permanent Income
Permanent
Income –
Income individuals expect to receive on average over the long term.
People
base their consumption decisions not just on current income but also on
permanent income.
If
people view tax changes as only temporary, they will not have their desired
effect.
Example:
Temporary tax surcharge increase in 1967
To
the extent that consumers base spending decisions on their permanent income,
attempts to fine-tune the economy with tax-rate adjustments thought to be
temporary will be less effective.
D.
Feedback Effects of Fiscal
Policy on Aggregate Supply
Fiscal
policy may affect aggregate supply, often unintentionally.
Changes
in transfer payments/taxes not only affect AD, but could cause changes in the
labor supply.
Both
automatic stabilizers, unemployment insurance and the progressive income tax,
and discretionary fiscal policy, such as changes in tax rates, may affect
individual incentives to work, spend, save, and invest, although these effects
are usually unintended.
V.
The Evolution of Fiscal
Policy
Prior
to the Great Depression, public policy was based on the views of classical
economists. The object of fiscal policy was only to balance the budget.
Classical
economists
– A group of 18th- and 19th- century economists who
believed that recessions were short-run phenomena that corrected themselves
through natural market forces; thus they believed the economy was
self-correcting.
-
They
believed that most economic crises were caused by sources other than market
forces (wars, poor growing seasons, and changes in tastes.)
-
They
felt that active fiscal policy would do more harm than good.
-
Recessions/inflation
temporary and would be fixed by market forces.
A.
Great Depression and WWII
3
things happened to increase the use of discretionary fiscal policy
1.
1936
Keynes' The General Theory
Keynesian
theory and policy were developed to address the problem of unemployment arising
from the Great Depression.
-
He
argued that prices, wages were not flexible enough to ensure full employment of
resources.
-
Business
expectations might at times be so grim, that even high low rates wouldn’t get
firms investing.
2.
WWII
increased production and eliminated cyclical unemployment during the war years,
pulling the economy out of the depression.
3.
Employment
Act of 1946 gave the federal government the responsibility for promoting full
employment and price stability.
B.
Golden Age to Stagflation
1960s
were the golden age of fiscal policy
Demand-management
policies were not suited to deal with stagflation.
C.
U.S. Budget Deficits of the
1980s and 1990s
1981
President Reagan and Congress agreed on a 23% reduction in average income tax
rates and a major buildup in defense, with no offsetting reduction in domestic
programs. (Tax cut phased in over 3 years.)
Tax
reduction represented a supply-side idea that lower taxes would increase work
incentives and increase labor supply and other resources, thus increasing
potential GDP.
Supply-side
theory predicted that real GDP would
increase so much that tax revenue might actually increase.
Did
the supply-side experiment work?
D.
Balancing the Federal Budget
1993
Taxes increased substantially on high-income households
1994
Congress introduced more discipline on federal spending as part of plan to
balance budget by 2002.
At the same time, the economy experienced a vigorous
recovery fueled by increased consumer spending and business optimism.
1998
Budget Balanced
Toward
the end of the 90s, the economy has been performing so well that there has been
no need to consider using discretionary fiscal policy.
VI.
Automatic Stabilizers
Automatic
stabilizers smooth fluctuations in disposable income over the business cycle,
thereby boosting aggregate demand during periods of recession and dampening
aggregate demand during periods of expansion.
Example
Federal
Income Tax system is progressive (fraction of income paid in taxes increases as
income increases).
Expansion
à growing fraction of income goes to taxes à slowing the growth in DI and C.
This
relieves the inflationary pressure associated with expansions.
Example
Unemployment
Insurance
Recession
à unemployment increases à payments are made from the insurance fund to
those who are unemployed à This increases their
disposable income and decreases the impact of the recession.
Because
of Automatic Stabilizers
1.
GDP
fluctuates less than it otherwise would
2.
Disposable
Income varies proportionately less than does real GDP
The
stronger automatic stabilizers are, the less the need for discretionary fiscal
policy.