January 12, 2003

Airline's New Diet Has Rivals Watching

By EDWARD WONG

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/01/12/business/yourmoney/

 

TEMPE, Ariz.

 

WHO knew that beef jerky and chicken Kiev could rival tea leaves and tarot

cards as portents of the future?

 

But ever since America West started an experiment last Monday to sell food

aboard flights, other airlines have been trying to divine the industry's

fate in how the meals are received.

 

The willingness of America West's passengers to pay $3 to lick ice cream at

30,000 feet is being looked upon as a significant test of whether ailing

airlines can charge passengers for things that were once included in the

price of a ticket.

 

Desperate for revenue, big airlines with nationwide hub-and-spoke systems —

the so-called network carriers — have tried levying, with varying success,

surcharges for fuel, paper tickets, standby flights and extra or oversized

baggage in the last few months. America West's proposal is one of the most

audacious, if only because airline food is the punch line of so many jokes

about bad cuisine.

 

"I think it's an interesting experiment, and we're certainly watching it to

see how it fares," said Jeffrey A. Smisek, executive vice president for

corporate affairs at Continental Airlines. But Continental, he added, had no

plan to start charging for meals on its flights.

 

It does not surprise people in the industry that America West is willing to

try new ways to generate more revenue. In the span of a year, the airline,

the country's eighth largest, has become a pace setter, provocateur and

guinea pig for an industry in transition. It was the first network carrier

to simplify its fare structure and ease restrictions on cheap tickets, and

it beat its rivals applying for — and getting — a federal loan guarantee.

 

Whether travelers will ultimately accept this latest experiment remains to

be seen — about one-quarter of passengers on test flights bought box meals

last Monday and Tuesday.

 

But industry experts credit America West for being willing to be creative,

even at the risk of irritating passengers who used to get food free. Its

goal, which is shared by other network carriers, is to match the success of

Southwest, JetBlue Airways and other low-cost carriers. All of America

West's recent efforts have been directed at turning the airline into what W.

Douglas Parker, its chief executive, calls the country's "second-largest

low-fare carrier."

 

What has emerged so far is a sleeker if occasionally ungainly hybrid.

 

America West's costs are lower than those of its network rivals, but not as

low as Southwest's. It is sticking with its hub-and-spoke model, rather than

adopting Southwest's approach of flying directly from city to city; as a

result, it cannot use its planes as efficiently. It will for now keep using

a mix of plane types, resulting in higher labor and maintenance costs than

airlines that use only one type of plane.

 

It has also failed to achieve anything close to the name recognition of

JetBlue, which through aggressive marketing has made itself synonymous with

cheap fares and friendly service. Yet Wall Street analysts estimate that

America West lost $139 million, or $4.21 a share, in 2002 on an estimated

$2.04 billion in sales; they forecast that the loss will narrow to $51

million, or $1.50 a share, this year.

 

Still, America West's intense efforts to woo passengers have given its

competitors something else to chew over amid one of their worst slumps ever.

And now come the $5 cinnamon buns and $10 chickens Kiev.

 

In many ways, America West is the perfect lab rat for all these experiments.

With 884 daily flights, most of which connect to two big hubs in Phoenix and

Las Vegas and a tiny one in Columbus, Ohio, it is small enough to make

quick, sweeping changes. Its biggest rival in the two large hubs is

Southwest, so it has the chance to test its initiatives against the

industry's standard for success.

 

At the same time, America West, which was founded in 1981, has little to

lose in terms of reputation. It has already been in bankruptcy once, from

1991 to 1994, and it alienated many of its customers when a spate of

mechanical problems in 2000 forced it to cancel 6 percent of its flights.

 

"At least they've been trying some creative things that haven't been seen in

the industry, and you have to give them credit for that," said Jim

Corridore, an analyst at Standard & Poor's. "They're making some great

strides in cutting their cost structure, but they're still losing a lot of

money.

 

"If America West wants to follow the Southwest model," he added, "they have

to go full bore with it. They're not going to get much closer to the

Southwest model unless they abandon some of the costly hubs and abandon some

of their markets. They need to become a smaller airline."

 

The reinvention of America West began with the overhaul of its fare

structure last March, a result of a project led by J. Scott Kirby, 35,

executive vice president for sales and marketing.

 

Mr. Kirby, a graduate of the Air Force Academy who once worked as an

economist for the Pentagon, was promoted to his current position a day

before terrorists hijacked four airliners and crashed them in New York,

Washington and rural Pennsylvania. The collapse in air traffic after the

attacks forced him to scramble just to keep America West in business, but he

was able to turn to the airline's long-term reorganization within a few

months.

 

In fall 2001, America West got some financial breathing room. By

mid-November, it had become the first airline to apply for a federal loan

guarantee under a $10 billion aid program set up by Congress after the

terror attacks. Mr. Parker was told in late December 2001 that the Air

Transportation Stabilization Board, which administers the program, would

give the airline a $380 million loan guarantee on a $429 million loan if it

would promise to keep labor costs under control — and give the government

the option to buy up to 33 percent of its stock in the future.

 

America West's application, and the government's demands on it, prefigured

similar requests from US Airways and United Airlines, as well as a host of

smaller carriers. US Airways got conditional approval for a $900 million

loan guarantee. United's application for a $1.8 billion guarantee was

rejected early last month, forcing the airline to file for Chapter 11

bankruptcy protection.

 

Working feverishly, Mr. Kirby's team eventually came up with numbers that

led to what he called "the most heavily analyzed decision we ever made" —

dumping the old fare structure for a simplified model. All requirements for

Saturday-night stays were dropped, and unrestricted walk-up fares — the kind

popular with business travelers — were cut by around 70 percent. One-way

fares now cost no more than $400.

 

 

THOUGH Southwest and other low-cost airlines had long operated with this

kind of system, this was the first time that a network carrier had tried to

copy it. Business travelers embraced the move. America West's rivals gave it

the evil eye.

 

"Clearly we've done some things that have upset other airlines," Mr. Parker

said as jets swooped over palm trees outside the tinted windows of the

company's boardroom here. "I think upsetting your competition is not a bad

thing. We're trying to serve our employees and shareholders. If I were at

the other airlines, I would not necessarily do what America West has done,

and I might be upset at America West for doing it."

 

Competitors have not blindly copied America West, but they are watching it

closely and reacting swiftly. The day America West put its new fare

structure in place, Continental, Delta Air Lines and Northwest Airlines

drastically cut fares on routes where America West was the main nonstop

carrier. Continental also dropped a code-share alliance that it had had with

America West since 1994.

 

Mr. Parker has said that his rivals' actions are anticompetitive, but his

rivals dispute that accusation.

 

This winter, several other airlines have moved in the same direction,

starting their own experiments with simpler fares.

 

Last Monday, United made deep cuts in unrestricted fares on direct flights

from its hubs in Chicago and Denver and on thousands of flights in smaller

markets. American Airlines, and Continental immediately matched those cuts.

Jamie Baker, an analyst at J. P. Morgan Chase, said those routes represented

32 percent of total domestic sales.

 

Delta and American Airlines have similar, though more limited, experiments

in other markets. On Nov. 14, for example, American reduced unrestricted

fares and simplified its fare structure on 23 "city pairs," or routes, then

expanded that to more than 400 last month. Sonja Whitemon, a spokeswoman for

American, said the company had based its move on its own needs rather than

on what America West had done.

 

 

MR. KIRBY, the marketing executive, said America West's fare overhaul was

bringing in more passengers who travel on short notice. The airline's

revenue per available seat mile generated by full fares was up 1 percent in

the second quarter and 14 percent in the third quarter over the comparable

periods last year, he said.

 

But he added that what had worked for America West might not work for other

network carriers because only 5 percent of America West's revenue had come

from full fares before its structure change. That contrasts with 10 percent

for the industry over all, according to the Air Transport Association, the

industry's main trade group. This means most other airlines risk losing more

revenue if they try to lower their full fares systemwide.

 

"With the system they operate, on low-yielding routes, it's a perfect

formula for them," Raymond L. Neidl, an analyst at Blaylock & Partners, an

investment bank in New York, said of America West. "With their size and

their market, it's something that's worked for them."

 

America West started its experiment of charging for food on a dozen daily

short flights from Phoenix. Flight attendants began selling snack boxes with

items like hot sandwiches, chips and cookies for $3 to $5. This week, the

experiment will expand to a dozen medium-length flights. In the third and

final week, America West will ask long-distance passengers to pay $10 for

meals like chicken Kiev served on china.

 

Mr. Parker said one gauge of success will be whether the airline can cover

the cost of providing meals, which runs $250 to $300 a flight. Jeffrey D.

McClelland, executive vice president for operations, said that two days into

the experiment, 20 to 30 percent of passengers on the test flights were

buying the food. "We expect it'll go up a little bit as we go to long-haul

markets," he said.

 

Though European low-cost carriers like Ryanair already sell food aboard

flights, analysts are skeptical that America West will recoup its costs.

They say Southwest's success has shown that passengers want nothing more

than to get from one place to another as cheaply as possible. Besides, they

say, why would passengers buy an airline meal when they can get food from a

real restaurant in the airport?

 

"At least somebody at America West is thinking outside of the box," said Joe

Brancatelli, an advocate for business travelers who writes an online

newsletter. "But the airlines should do what they do best. They fly people.

Stop trying to be the department store. Don't sell me food; don't sell me

entertainment."

 

American Airlines has determined that selling food on flights would be too

complicated and expensive, and it is in early talks with concessionaires to

sell food at gates, said Todd Burke, a spokesman for American. Northwest,

though, is planning to sell food aboard some flights in a month-long trial

starting on Wednesday.

 

 

SELLING sandwiches may be symbolically significant, but it is only one of

the issues facing America West. A larger challenge is to whittle its cost

structure so that it can continue to offer cheap fares and compete

effectively with Southwest in Phoenix and Las Vegas. In the first half of

2002, it spent 8.61 cents flying one seat one mile, according to Back

Aviation Solutions, an airline consulting company. That was less than any

network carrier, but still almost 17 percent higher than the 7.37 cents

spent by Southwest.

 

Industry analysts point to several obstacles that prevent America West from

slimming its operations. Because it operates using hubs, for example, its

planes spend more time on the ground to allow passengers to connect — 50 to

55 minutes, according to Mr. McClelland. Southwest's planes have a

turnaround time of 20 to 30 minutes.

 

America West flies its planes an average of 9.3 hours a day, versus 10.9

hours at Southwest, according to Back Aviation. Airlines, of course, cannot

collect revenue when their planes are idle.

 

With three types of planes in its fleet, America West also spends more on

labor and maintenance than do low-cost airlines that use only one type of

plane. Mr. McClelland said the company had been working to switch its fleet

entirely to Airbus A319's and A320's, but that fell through after the Sept.

11 attacks.

 

America West has also had a tougher time dealing with its unions than has

Southwest, and its mechanics' and flight dispatchers' contracts are up for

renegotiation this year. It reached a tentative agreement last month with

one union, the Air Line Pilots Association, but only after rancorous talks

that required federal mediation.

 

Finally — and this may matter more to travelers than to anything else — it

ranked eighth in on-time performance in November, according to the

Transportation Department. That gets to the heart of what passengers want

from their air travel experience. Given the choice, would they rather pick

an airline that sells a $5 cheese omelet sandwich, or one that has a better

track record flying them to their destinations by the promised hour?

 

As Mr. Brancatelli observed, "I don't know anyone who makes the decision on

flying based on the food they get."